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08-23-2012, 11:18 AM
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Pride of the Neighborhood
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Join Date: Feb 2007
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Univ. of Colorado Study Predicts Romney Victory
Hallelujah! Things are looking good for the November election! It is confirming what I have been saying this election is all about. Especially note the last paragraph.
Quote:
A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980 forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney.
The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.
“Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,” said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program.
According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent, when considering only the two major political parties.
“For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,” said Berry. “The economy has seen some improvement since President Obama took office. What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If it’s the former, the president may receive credit for the economy’s trajectory and win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008.”
Their model correctly predicted all elections since 1980, including two years when independent candidates ran strongly, 1980 and 1992. It also correctly predicted the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore received the most popular vote but George W. Bush won the election.
The study will be published this month in PS: Political Science & Politics, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Political Science Association. It will be among about a dozen election prediction models, but one of only two to focus on the Electoral College.
While many forecast models are based on the popular vote, the Electoral College model developed by Bickers and Berry is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions.
In addition to state and national unemployment rates, the authors looked at per capita income, which indicates the extent to which people have more or less disposable income. Research shows that these two factors affect the major parties differently: Voters hold Democrats more responsible for unemployment rates while Republicans are held more responsible for per capita income.
Accordingly -- and depending largely on which party is in the White House at the time -- each factor can either help or hurt the major parties disproportionately.
Their results show that “the apparent advantage of being a Democratic candidate and holding the White House disappears when the national unemployment rate hits 5.6 percent,” Berry said. ..The results indicate, according to Bickers, “that the incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama, though statistically significant, is not great enough to offset high rates of unemployment currently experienced in many of the states.”
In an examination of other factors, the authors found that none of the following had any statistically significant effect on whether a state ultimately went for a particular candidate: The location of a party’s national convention; the home state of the vice president; or the partisanship of state governors.
In 2012, “What is striking about our state-level economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida,” Bickers said.
In Colorado, which went for Obama in 2008, the model predicts that Romney will receive 51.9 percent of the vote to Obama’s 48.1 percent, again with only the two major parties considered.
The authors also provided caveats. Factors they said may affect their prediction include the timeframe of the economic data used in the study and close tallies in certain states. The current data was taken five months in advance of the Nov. 6 election and they plan to update it with more current economic data in September. A second factor is that states very close to a 50-50 split may fall an unexpected direction.
“As scholars and pundits well know, each election has unique elements that could lead one or more states to behave in ways in a particular election that the model is unable to correctly predict,” Berry said.
Election prediction models “suggest that presidential elections are about big things and the stewardship of the national economy,” Bickers said. “It’s not about gaffes, political commercials or day-to-day campaign tactics. I find that heartening for our democracy.”
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__________________
When a newspaper posed the question, "What's Wrong with the World?" G. K. Chesterton reputedly wrote a brief letter in response: "Dear Sirs: I am. Sincerely Yours, G. K. Chesterton." That is the attitude of someone who has grasped the message of Jesus.
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08-23-2012, 06:21 PM
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Pride of the Neighborhood
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 6,166
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Re: Univ. of Colorado Study Predicts Romney Victor
These guys have predicted the past EIGHT presidential elections, even the 2000 election even though Gore won the popular vote.
AND the evidence shows that the #1 factor is the ECONOMY...
Everything else is smoke and mirrors---GOP skinny dipping, Akin, Romney tax records, Bain Capital, Paul Ryan, blah, blah, blah---HOW ARE YOU DOING ECONOMICALLY? DO YOU HAVE A JOB? HOW MUCH DOES GAS COST? HOW MUCH DO GROCERIES COST? WHAT KIND OF FINANCIAL FUTURE SO WE HAVE FOR OUR KIDS?
The Dems and the Mainstream Media and the White House will be doing slight of hand from now til November---but voters live in the real world, and a majority of them are better off than 4 years ago or 8 years ago. And this president did NOT keep his promises to cut the deficit in half, lower unemployment to below 8% and to cut spending.
Obama is gonna lose, pure and simple...
__________________
When a newspaper posed the question, "What's Wrong with the World?" G. K. Chesterton reputedly wrote a brief letter in response: "Dear Sirs: I am. Sincerely Yours, G. K. Chesterton." That is the attitude of someone who has grasped the message of Jesus.
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08-23-2012, 06:28 PM
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Registered Member
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Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 3,270
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Re: Univ. of Colorado Study Predicts Romney Victor
cbs is stumbling all over themselves trying to explain it , so tonight they are going to do a hatchet job on mormon religion,not a word of course about islam .
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08-27-2012, 09:53 AM
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Registered Member
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Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: In His Hands
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Re: Univ. of Colorado Study Predicts Romney Victor
Quote:
Originally Posted by canam
cbs is stumbling all over themselves trying to explain it , so tonight they are going to do a hatchet job on mormon religion,not a word of course about islam .
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Why would they mention Islam?
Romney practices Mormonism, not Islam.
__________________
"The choices we make reveal the true nature of our character."
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08-27-2012, 10:38 AM
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Pride of the Neighborhood
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 6,166
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Re: Univ. of Colorado Study Predicts Romney Victor
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jermyn Davidson
Why would they mention Islam?
Romney practices Mormonism, not Islam.
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As the race closes and the numbers get worse for Obama the line of attack will be racism and Mormonism. Mark it down.
__________________
When a newspaper posed the question, "What's Wrong with the World?" G. K. Chesterton reputedly wrote a brief letter in response: "Dear Sirs: I am. Sincerely Yours, G. K. Chesterton." That is the attitude of someone who has grasped the message of Jesus.
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08-27-2012, 11:16 AM
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Registered Member
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Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 2,149
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Re: Univ. of Colorado Study Predicts Romney Victor
It's because of all those psycho militant Mormons beheading infidels and blowing up innocent people.
Wait no...those are Muslims like Barack Obama.
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