Quote:
Originally Posted by Charnock
So Ferd...for months you have been laughing at anyone who claimed a recession, and maybe even a depression, was coming.
Do you wish to adjust your opinion now?
|
Nope. a few weeks ago we had a discussion about this and I said then that while I am not ready to panic, things didnt look very good....
D4T and I just talked about that meal he is going to buy me in about 1 3/4 years. (he said if the economy was good in 2 years he would buy me dinner.)
AND I never laughe at the idea of a recession, I did poo poo those saying we were on the verge of complete collapse, Great Depression, famine etc.
We have recessions every once in a while when the market needs to reset. that happens. some are a bit more hard than others.
but generally speaking we are clear in 18 months or so and things are better than they were before.
What I have said about the current situation is that we have not actually hit what would qualify as a resession yet (that would be 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth).
I suspect we will find ourselves in one pretty soon. But I am not willing toss my hands in the air and run find a soup line just yet.
It could happen. or what could happen is things get bad for a couple of months as this thing unwinds then businesses will reset, revaluate and start on the road to recovery.
we will loose jobs (maybe even mine), things will get tight, but in the end, things will turn around.
and I think that will happen before we hit 50% unemployment, house values dropping by 50% or more etc etc.