Quote:
Originally Posted by Ferd
I think the odds are too close and I think he will have done enough polling to know that he is too tainted to win.
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Does anyone else expect the Obamas to "wag the dog" here? I look for major amounts of pressure on Iran by the current admin before the fall elections.
1. A second carrier battle group has just moved into the region and two more are "Surge Ready" in the Atlantic while another left San Diego last week in a "Surge Ready" status.
2. Saudi Arabia is said to have given Israel clearance through a corridor of Saudi airspace.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp...aI2Mrgup0JCh6Q
The Saudis of course claim this to be "illogical" and even "slanderous" publicly. But the zealous Sunni government is no friend of the Shiite and Persian Iranians. After World War One, ibn Saud was preparing to invade Mesopotamia (Iraq) to "free" it from the Persian and "infidel" grip (much of Southwestern Iran is considered "Iraq" by the Arabs and has a large Arab population- even a majority in many areas).
Only the sudden availability of the Hejaz (Mecca and Medina) stopped him from that. A common cultural point for travelers is that you do not refer to the Gulf as "The Persian Gulf." It's " al-Khaleej al-Arabi;" the Arabian Gulf. There's a lot of animosity here.
If the Americans permitted the Israelis to overfly Iraq then the Iranians could raise a hue and cry about the US being in the region as a "crusader" force and subservient to "Jewish interests." The Jordanians would also be isolated politically.
The Saudis, however; would be seen (after the fact and after denying the whole affair) as simply being pragmatic and acting in their own self interests. The Kuwaitis, UAE and Bahrain also remember the attacks they suffered from the Iranians during "the great Arab-Persian conflict" of the late 1980s (The Iran/Iraq War).
Of course, the Iranian response will be to lash out against the American forces in the Gulf. This necessitates beefing them up. The reprisals for the attacks against the Americans will result in the destruction of Iranian bases along the Gulf and maybe even follow up attacks on the nuclear sites.
I'm not too worried about the effects of any Iranian attacks. Their "boat swarming" tactics are about as effective as Saddam's "technical vehicles" were against Abrams tanks. The only real danger they pose is if they obtained nukes. American "Wild Weasel" tactics will render most of their conventional missiles into scrap. Of course, this whole scenario must involve some American casualties - but the Iranian losses will be disproportionate and send them back to their North Korean drawing boards.
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