Thompson and Obama Gain on Rudy and Hillary

[Pressing-On]

There was good news this week for both soon-to-be candidate Fred Thompson and growing-by-the-hour candidate Barack Obama. The Los Angeles Times survey of April 5-9 found that former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson had moved into second place – ahead of the seriously damaged McCain – in the GOP presidential primary. This is an amazing showing for an undeclared candidate.

And on the Democratic side, an online vote conducted by liberal anti-war group, Moveon.org showed Obama in first place, with Edwards close behind, as the best candidate to lead the U.S. out of Iraq. Hillary came in fifth, after Kunich and Richardsen. This does not auger well for Hillary, who has been trying to move further to the left on the war and cultivate the anti-war vote.

THE REPUBLICANS:

THOMPSON OVERTAKES MCCAIN

The surprisingly positive results for Thompson in the L.A. Times survey may be the final impetus that convinces him to jump into the race. There have been several recent indications that Thompson is abut to declare.

First, his public disclosure that he was diagnosed with lymphoma several years ago and is now in remission could only have been made to pave the way for his entry in the Republican primary. A potential candidate would have to get that information out before someone leaked it. And, on the other hand, if Thompson was not a candidate, he would have no reason to divulge that personal information.

Thompson has also scheduled a number of high profile appearances in Washington, including the National Catholic Prayer Breakfast, a meeting with 40-50 Republican Congressman, and a speech at the influential Lincoln Club in Orange County, California. A Thompson adviser, Mark Corallo, said that the schedule of events are "indications that Fred is taking this very seriously."

The vibes in Washington certainly suggest that Thompson is about to jump into the race, probably declaring his candidacy in May.

The L.A. Times poll showed Guiliani leading the field, as usual, at 29% but with Thompson in second place at 15%. McCain fell to third place at 12%. Poor Mitt Romney still can't get no respect and trailed at 8%. The results were as follows:

GIULIANI 29%

THOMPSON 15%

MC CAIN 12%

ROMNEY 8%

GINGRICH 7%

HUCKABEE 3%

Source: LA Times

The Thompson numbers are important in two respects: They show that McCain is continuing to slip and slide as his campaign seems to lose momentum every day. But they also matter because Newt Gingrich, the other looming presence over the race, is badly trailing behind the undeclared Thompson, who seems to be picking up Newt's voters. So if Newt stays out until September, as he has vowed he would, the survey indicates that Fred would obliterate him in the meantime and make it all but impossible for him to run. It looks like Republicans are still looking for an ideal candidate and take Thompson quite seriously.

If Thompson were to run, he would fight an all-out battle with Giuliani for conservative Republicans. A recent Gallup Poll found that 22% of self-described pro-life Republicans – who constitute 2/3 of the GOP primary turnout – still vote for Rudy despite his widely known pro-choice position. Gallup has Rudy in first place among those pro-life voters, although by less than the 33% he gets from those who are pro-choice.

But Fred Thompson would give Rudy a real run for his money among these social conservatives. Significantly, in the LA Times poll, Thompson received more support from Christian conservatives – 21%- than any of the other candidates. Giuliani followed with 17% and McCain trailed with 10%.

My bet is that Rudy will still prevail because terrorism trumps abortion as an issue for the GOP right, but it could get close.

(cont)

[Pressing-On]

MCCAIN CONTINUES TO FALTER

In general, things are not looking good for McCain. He continues to fall in the polls, raised only $12.5 million in the first quarter, and has started laying off some of his campaign staff. The campaign finance reports that must be filed this week-end will show whether he has any money on hand.

McCain's hawkish pro-Bush position on Iraq may well doom him. He delivered a speech at VMI this week in which he claimed that the Iraq war was "necessary and just," a sentiment that the majority of Americans disagree with. Still, he might be able to appeal to the conservative base and pick up points for his honesty and his strength in espousing an unpopular position that he believes in.

He's got a lot of obstacles to overcome before he can improve his standing. And, he didn't help himself last week when he claimed that Baghdad was now safe enough to shop in one of the city's open markets. Of course, McCain was no ordinary shopper. After it was revealed that he was surrounded by a 100-member armed delegation, three Blackhawk helicopters, two Apache gunships, and wore a flak jacket, Mc Cain looked ridiculous and lost credibility.

Mc Cain hasn't formerly announced yet. If he can't raise money and can't improve his poll numbers, he might just have to forget about it.

ANNE ROMNEY SAYS MITT'S MORMON RELIGION IS NOT A PROBLEM

Mitt Romney's wife, Anne, told an Alabama audience that her husband's Mormon religion would not be a problem once people got to know him. The Romneys have good reason to address the issue: More than 29% of American voters in a recent Washington Post/ABC Poll indicated that they would not vote for a Mormon for President. And, in a recent Gallup poll, 46% of the respondents had a negative view of Mormons, while only 46% had a positive view.

Those who attend church weekly had the strongest negative views about Mormons, with Protestants weighing in as significantly more negative than their Catholic counterparts.

The disapproval of the Mormon religion may be the single biggest obstacle for a Romney candidacy. He is attractive and charismatic, a proven fund raiser, and was a successful governor of Massachusetts. Still, he has not been able to move his support into double digits and concerns about his religion may well prevent him from moving into the top teir of the Republican candidates.

It's possible that he'll be able to do what John Kennedy did in 1960 to combat anti-Catholic criticism. He needs to speak openly and honestly about his religion, so that voters understand what role his religion would play – if any – in the White House.

THE DEMOCRATS:

TROUBLE FOR HILLARY ON THE LEFT

Hillary's poor showing in the Moveon.org online vote on 'which candidate would best lead us out of Iraq' is important because it is the first real indication of how the anti-war left feels about the Democratic contenders on the Iraq War issue.

They don't like Hillary.

While the sampling is not at all scientific, it is still interesting because of the heft of Moveon.org among the activist left. While only about 42,000 people voted, the results certainly indicate that the left is getting sick of Hillary's evasiveness on the war.

The Moveon.org numbers were:

Obama 28%

Edwards 25%

Kucinich 17%

Richardson 12%

Clinton 11%

Biden 6%

Dodd 1%

To read more of the article:

http://www.townhall.com/columnists/D...dy_and_hillary