Mid-Term Election Nov 6th

[n david]

Originally Posted by Originalist

How this clown is doing so good in the polls is beyond reason.

Careful with the polls. You know this, because you kept telling me this in the 2016 election, when I was saying Trump was going to lose in a landslide.

@LarrySchweikart Oct 20

FL absentees; Rs +51,000 now in returns

Rs 386,702 (44%)
Ds 335,702 (38%)
Indy/Other 155,979 (17.7%)




@LarrySchweikart Oct 19

1) Last night I said we have 12 data points (AZ statewide, FL statewide +4 specific counties, IA + 2 counties, OH 2 counties, and NC).

Every single one was showing GOP turnout higher than midterm levels of 2014 and all but one (a county) showing turnout above 2016.

2) If I recall all the data correctly, D turnout/performance was below that of 2016 and, in the case of IA, below that of 2014.

3) Now we have two more data points to add: news out of WY that a net of 10k switched from D/other to R in last six months & turnout #s in Knox Co. TN. Out of 12 MEASURABLE data points--not polls which are opinions of what people "might" do in the future---every single one is favors the Rs.

4) I'll admit, I got a tad depressed for a minute yesterday when the latest Siena/NYT polls came out . . . before I was reminded they were making 60,000 calls to reach a mere 300 respondents.

SIXTY THOUSAND!

5) Who do you think is NOT responding?

Conservatives, Republicans, people with families & jobs.

6) That means these NYT polls are utterly worthless with a margin of error of 20% or more

7) So once again, we have real world data about what has ALREADY HAPPENED, stuff we can count . . . and unreliable polls of the opinions of people who won't even vote about what they might do if it doesn't rain or if they don't have a hangnail that day.

[Originalist]

Originally Posted by n david

Careful with the polls. You know this, because you kept telling me this in the 2016 election, when I was saying Trump was going to lose in a landslide.

@LarrySchweikart Oct 20

FL absentees; Rs +51,000 now in returns

Rs 386,702 (44%)
Ds 335,702 (38%)
Indy/Other 155,979 (17.7%)




@LarrySchweikart Oct 19

1) Last night I said we have 12 data points (AZ statewide, FL statewide +4 specific counties, IA + 2 counties, OH 2 counties, and NC).

Every single one was showing GOP turnout higher than midterm levels of 2014 and all but one (a county) showing turnout above 2016.

2) If I recall all the data correctly, D turnout/performance was below that of 2016 and, in the case of IA, below that of 2014.

3) Now we have two more data points to add: news out of WY that a net of 10k switched from D/other to R in last six months & turnout #s in Knox Co. TN. Out of 12 MEASURABLE data points--not polls which are opinions of what people "might" do in the future---every single one is favors the Rs.

4) I'll admit, I got a tad depressed for a minute yesterday when the latest Siena/NYT polls came out . . . before I was reminded they were making 60,000 calls to reach a mere 300 respondents.

SIXTY THOUSAND!

5) Who do you think is NOT responding?

Conservatives, Republicans, people with families & jobs.

6) That means these NYT polls are utterly worthless with a margin of error of 20% or more

7) So once again, we have real world data about what has ALREADY HAPPENED, stuff we can count . . . and unreliable polls of the opinions of people who won't even vote about what they might do if it doesn't rain or if they don't have a hangnail that day.

Incredible news.

[n david]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...549275648.html

[Esaias]

Originally Posted by Originalist

How this clown is doing so good in the polls is beyond reason.

It seems unreasonable to you because you have not yet come to terms with the fact that the polls are totally fake, like most everything related to politics.

[n david]

https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/s...46262690299904

Trump approval at 50%. Approval among Black voters a record high 40%!

[Esaias]

Originally Posted by n david

https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/s...46262690299904

Trump approval at 50%. Approval among Black voters a record high 40%!

Trump gets thousands at his rallies. The Dems get what, a couple dozen maybe?

Personally, I think they are going to steal the elections. It came out a while back that tons of "former CIA" people were running for office now, most of them as Dems. The voting machines are still unaccountable and there are still problems being reported with them as usual. We literally have a media that is pretty much 100% a monolithic antiAmerican communist propaganda machine. We have a "deep state" apparatus embedded in government (been there for probably 100 years), we have intelligence and law enforcement agency bureaucrats obviously and in some cases openly committing high crimes and misdemeanors if not outright treason, we've been supporting ISIS and the Muslim Brotherhood, our very own government is bent on destroying the nation through open borders, media and government and Big Tech are riddled with anti white racists and anti Christian bigots... and they all promote the "go out and vote" thing. What was it Mark Twain said? If voting worked they wouldn't let us do it? Something like that.

[n david]

FoxNews has already called the House for the Democrats. There are still a majority of individual races which haven't been called, but FNC is claiming their forecast shows that the GOP has lost the House.

[FlamingZword]

Originally Posted by n david

FoxNews has already called the House for the Democrats. There are still a majority of individual races which haven't been called, but FNC is claiming their forecast shows that the GOP has lost the House.

way to early to call any such thing. somebody goofed big time at Fox.

[jfrog]

Originally Posted by FlamingZword

way to early to call any such thing. somebody goofed big time at Fox.

Can't data from the elections already called give insight into the elections still in progress? What if that's what they are doing to call them?

For example, how likely is it that if ohio elects a democrat senator with a 55-45 margin that Michigan will as well, etc?

[n david]

It certainly appears FNC was correct. The Dems have just taken the lead in the House. Unsure what data FNC was looking at, but they were pretty spot on.

I'm happy we gained a couple seats in the Senate which weren't expected. As long as the GOP controls the Senate, Trump can continue to reshape the Judiciary and get Judges and Justices confirmed.

My spin on losing the House: This could help the GOP and set them up well for 2020. Give Dems two years in the House to obstruct and spend their time on fishing expeditions against Trump and it will blow back on them.