Nate Silver: Trump 57.5% Chance of Winning

[n david]

Originally Posted by jfrog

Why is that unlikely?

I have never, not in my lifetime, seen a politician jump from 19% in the polls to 55.3% in one month. Never. Conventions don't even give that kind of bounce.



Sorry, either the 19% was wrong, or his 55.3% is wrong. Something isn't right.

Also, looking at the chart of States, I don't believe Trump is going to sweep FL, OH, and PA.

But I'll acknowledge that anything can happen. Especially in this bizarre election, where one nominee is a felon, and the other nominee was her big donor and supporter.

[jfrog]

i didn't know he was running a poll. He was running a statistical model to estimate the chance of winning the election. As more information is gathered his models predictions change.

His model weights recent data higher than older data. In a model like that big swings can and will happen.

It really would not be out of the ordinary.

Originally Posted by n david

I have never, not in my lifetime, seen a politician jump from 19% in the polls to 55.3% in one month. Never. Conventions don't even give that kind of bounce.



Sorry, either the 19% was wrong, or his 55.3% is wrong. Something isn't right.

Also, looking at the chart of States, I don't believe Trump is going to sweep FL, OH, and PA.

But I'll acknowledge that anything can happen. Especially in this bizarre election, where one nominee is a felon, and the other nominee was her big donor and supporter.

[n david]

Originally Posted by jfrog

i didn't know he was running a poll. He was running a statistical model to estimate the chance of winning the election. As more information is gathered his models predictions change.

His model weights recent data higher than older data. In a model like that big swings can and will happen.

It really would not be out of the ordinary.

I'll take your (and Nate's) word for it. I don't get much into statistics.

[jfrog]

Originally Posted by n david

I'll take your (and Nate's) word for it. I don't get much into statistics.

Just as a thought experiment. Suppose Donald trump was charged with a major crime tomorrow with smoking gun type evidence. His model would pick up on that rather quickly and Donald's chance would to win would quickly plummet, probably well below 19%.

[n david]

Originally Posted by jfrog

Just as a thought experiment. Suppose Donald trump was charged with a major crime tomorrow with smoking gun type evidence. His model would pick up on that rather quickly and Donald's chance would to win would quickly plummet, probably well below 19%.

What could have caused him to jump from 19% to 55% in a month? Besides being officially nominated? Or would that be it? LoL

[deacon blues]

Latest polls have Trump leading in 5 out of 7:

Average 7/18 - 7/26 45.7 44.6 Trump +1.1

CNN/ORC 7/22 - 7/24 48 45 Trump +3

CBS News 7/22 - 7/24 44 43 Trump +1

LA Times 7/20 - 7/26 47 40 Trump +7

Economist 7/23 - 7/24 42 47 Clinton +5

NBC News 7/18 - 7/24 45 46 Clinton +1

Gravis 7/21 - 7/22 51 49 Trump +2

Rasmussen 7/18 - 7/19. 43. 42. Trump +1

[deacon blues]

Originally Posted by n david

What could have caused him to jump from 19% to 55% in a month? Besides being officially nominated? Or would that be it? LoL

Perhaps the FBI Director testifying that Hillary lied multiple times to the American public after publicly denying over and over that she had sent and received classified information? Just maybe...

[n david]

Originally Posted by deacon blues

Perhaps the FBI Director testifying that Hillary lied multiple times to the American public after publicly denying over and over that she had sent and received classified information? Just maybe...

Not to bump him from 19% to 55%

[Aquila]

Originally Posted by deacon blues

Perhaps the FBI Director testifying that Hillary lied multiple times to the American public after publicly denying over and over that she had sent and received classified information? Just maybe...

Here's an interesting article....

http://www.apostolicfriendsforum.com...58&postcount=1

[Aquila]

It's really telling when the Director of the FBI will grant a candidate virtual immunity regarding the mishandling of classified information.... because to charge them would essentially surrender the nation to Trump. lol

Clearly, the FBI is even trying to save the nation from a Trump Presidency.