Obama Leading Senate Dems to Slaughter

[deacon blues]

An article by Dick Morris in The Hill:

Outside the Beltway, polling indicates a massacre of Senate Democrats is in the offing in the 2012 elections. Currently, Rasmussen’s polls have Republicans leading Democrats for eight Senate seats now held by Democrats. Nelson is 6 points behind Mack in Florida, McCaskill is 10 behind Steelman in Missouri, Tester is 3 behind Rehberg in Montana, Brown is 4 behind Mandel in Ohio. And, for open seats, Allen is 3 up on Kaine in Virginia, Bruning is 20 ahead of Kerry in Nebraska, Thompson is 15 ahead in Wisconsin, and either Berg or Sand will undoubtedly win in North Dakota. Additionally, the races in New Mexico and Michigan show the Republican less than 4 behind. (The GOP might lose Massachusetts and Maine, but a massive wipeout of Democrats is coming.)

Why? Obviously, the shift in party identification has a lot to do with it. While Washington insiders are chortling about Obama’s likely reelection, those who are paying attention know that there has been an 8-point party-identification shift from Democrat to Republican, 2 points of which took place after the 2010 elections. Not only is this shift going to doom Obama’s chances, it will engulf Democratic candidates up and down the line. But could Obama be slaying his own candidates? Ever since the GOP victory of 2010, Obama has emulated Harry Truman in attacking the “do-nothing Congress” — a theme that underscored Truman’s 1948 reelection. But has Obama noticed that half of Congress is Democratic? In an effort to avoid appearing partisan, the president attacked “Congress” without distinguishing the House from the Senate or the members of his own party from the opposition.

In a reprise of 2008, he is trying to run against the “culture” in Washington and the “gridlock” in our system. But while he hasn’t done much damage to Republicans seeking election, he has inflicted massive harm on his own party. Democratic support for Democratic senators is incredibly low, and independent backing for their candidacies virtually nonexistent.

Yet Obama’s dissing of his own candidates has not elicited a murmur of protest from his party. As he excoriates Congress for not passing his “jobs” bill and complains about the toxic atmosphere in which he is forced to dwell, he is ruining his own party’s chances. Nothing else can explain fully the drop in the support Obama voters give the Democratic Senate candidates. Sure, Obama will lose Florida and probably Missouri as well, but not by enough to have McCaskill at 41 percent of the vote and Nelson at 36. Even in Michigan, my own polls have Stabenow only at 46 percent (trailed by Hoekstra at 42 percent), in a state Obama must carry and in which he is favored.

In Obama’s reelection strategy, it appears that he plans very little defense of his own abysmal record, understandably, and will run an ad hominem campaign against Romney (as soon as Santorum stops his ad hominem attacks). The prospects for this reelecting the president are doubtful, but it certainly won’t give Democrats running for the Senate any place to stand.

His party should realize just how ineffective ad hominem negatives were in 2010. No Democratic congressman ran on Obama’s record — or even his own — as each tried to savage his particular opponent. It was as if they were saying, “Vote against Obama, I understand, but you can’t possibly vote for this Republican who is opposing me.” It didn’t work, and it won’t if that is the only platform Obama gives his candidates.

Two years ago, it seemed that Rep. Paul Ryan’s (R-Wis.) Medicare reforms would give Democrats a place to stand, but Ryan’s newfound moderation, masquerading as a deal with Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), undercuts that premise.

Now the Democrats stand accused by their own president of doing nothing, fostering a toxic atmosphere and promoting gridlock. A great way to run for reelection.....

There is a quiet, yet misplaced confidence among many Dems I know that BO is going to be reelected. Anything can happen between now and November, but outside of some major that turns the campaign around I just can't see how an incumbent president with 8+% unemployment, $16 trillion in debt, overreaching, expanding government, out of control spending, ideological hubris, rising gas prices, etc. can be reelected.

If he wins in November it will be nothing short of a miracle.

[Pressing-On]

On the other side of the argument...

Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul are toast, and why some conservatives will secretly root for Obama

The real problem for Republicans is that some honorable conservatives believe that Romney would be a disaster for conservatives. The only thing these conservatives hate more than Romney winning one term is Romney winning two terms. Some of these conservatives will secretly hope Obama wins, so they can nominate a true conservative in 2016.

In a close election, these conservative stay-homes could be fatal for Republicans, but the more Mitt panders to them, the more moderates he loses, which could also be fatal to Republicans.

In the end, Gingrich and Paul will pander to Romney, but Romney cannot pander to everyone at the same time. This is why there is secret joy in the White House, while some on the right will secretly be satisfied if Obama wins.

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blo...root-for-obama

[Hoovie]

That is an argument I don't buy PO... I think the number of disenchanted Republicans that will stonewall the election by not voting will be almost immeasurable for their small number. Republicans and conservative Independents really, really want to dump Obama.

[Pressing-On]

Originally Posted by Hoovie

That is an argument I don't buy PO... I think the number of disenchanted Republicans that will stonewall the election by not voting will be almost immeasurable for their small number. Republicans and conservative Independents really, really want to dump Obama.

I agree that our focus and concern is dumping Obama. I think that many will vote their party line and vote for Romney, but I also agree with Bill O'Reilly and others, that many Conservatives have not warmed up to him. And that really bothers me with such an important election at stake.

When Romney needs a boost, they pull out the endorsements that they are holding back, i.e., Rubio. Romney is much like Clinton, he does and says whatever will get him the popular vote. But unlike Romney, Clinton really desired people to like him.

I particularly agree with Milton Friedman, “It’s nice to elect the right people but that isn’t the way you solve things. The way you solve things is by making it politically profitable for the wrong people to do the right thing.”

I am glad we are gaining some seats in the Senate. We are going to need them.

[canam]

Originally Posted by Hoovie

That is an argument I don't buy PO... I think the number of disenchanted Republicans that will stonewall the election by not voting will be almost immeasurable for their small number. Republicans and conservative Independents really, really want to dump Obama.

[CC1]

PO'd,

I can't imagine any real conservative or any American who loves this country "secretly wishing Obama will win". I believe conservatives will get behind Romney because they know that as moderate as Romney may be he is a whole lot more conservative than Obama.

[Pressing-On]

Originally Posted by CC1

PO'd,

I can't imagine any real conservative or any American who loves this country "secretly wishing Obama will win". I believe conservatives will get behind Romney because they know that as moderate as Romney may be he is a whole lot more conservative than Obama.

It was just an article I read on The Hill. Deacon's post about picking up Senate seats made me think of it. Mainly, because many have said they are not sure Romney can beat Obama and they are going to look to try and pick up more seats in the Senate in order to brace ourselves for Obama's second term.

Unless a whole lot of people want Obama out, Romney is not going to win. I hope the majority of Americans want him out, but the polls concerning him and the issues concerning him have been so close to 50/50, it's a country divided, IMO.

[Jermyn Davidson]

I PROMISE YOU that I will NEVER vote for Romney-- even if he picks Rubio for his VP (which by the way, he won't).

I supported Rubio and volunteered for his cause.

I will actively campaign AGAINST Romney and wear my GOP lapel all day long as I do it.

I am not the only self-identifying Republican, conservative who feels this way.

[aegsm76]

Originally Posted by Jermyn Davidson

I PROMISE YOU that I will NEVER vote for Romney-- even if he picks Rubio for his VP (which by the way, he won't).

I supported Rubio and volunteered for his cause.

I will actively campaign AGAINST Romney and wear my GOP lapel all day long as I do it.

I am not the only self-identifying Republican, conservative who feels this way.

What is your issue with Mitt?
Who would you rather have running against BHO?

[Dedicated Mind]

may the blessings of the angel moroni be with all republicans this election season. amen. special blessings from moroni for deacon, po, hoovie, esther and crakjak.