I'll be the first to say it

[Originalist]

Logically, and historically, Trump should be re-elected fairly easily. This is classically the case for most incumbents, even during tough times. George H.W. Bush would have been re-elected had it not been for Ross Perot. Carter was strapped with a looming Soviet threat that he ignored, the Iranian hostage crisis, and a lagging economy. He is the outlier in all of this.

Trump has a solid economy, even with Covid disrupting it. His policies are popular. The wall is underway. We are completely energy independent and now surpassing the Saudis as the world's largest energy exporter. Trump's approval rating is lagging a bit but most likely will be at 50% on election day just like Obama's was.

In spite of every indicator that he should win, he will not. I hate to say it. Here are the reasons why.

1. Ohio voters are fickle. Factory closings continued after Trump took office. Oh, that trend is already slowing down and will completely reverse in a second Trump term. But that is not enough quick enough for the average blue collar worker there who will vote the Dems back in even though they blame the Dems for jobs being shipped out of the country. They are shallow and lack foresight.

2. Though Trump has withstood the media like no other President in history, the onslaught of lies and mistruths has begun to make just enough voters weary to the point they believe voting Trump out will cause discord to subside.

3. Voter fraud will be rampant and will cost Trump the rust belt states he won last time.


So, I predict a narrow Biden win on election night. May God permit me to be wrong about this.

AMENDMENT: Whie I agree that polls will tighten by election day, I still predict that Rasmaussen's weekly election poll released tomorrow will show Biden up by a full 10. Rasmaussen is one of the most unbiased polls out there.