Quote:
Originally Posted by Originalist
How this clown is doing so good in the polls is beyond reason.
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Careful with the polls. You know this, because you kept telling me this in the 2016 election, when I was saying Trump was going to lose in a landslide.
@LarrySchweikart Oct 20
FL absentees; Rs +51,000 now in returns
Rs 386,702 (44%)
Ds 335,702 (38%)
Indy/Other 155,979 (17.7%)
@LarrySchweikart Oct 19
1) Last night I said we have 12 data points (AZ statewide, FL statewide +4 specific counties, IA + 2 counties, OH 2 counties, and NC).
Every single one was showing GOP turnout higher than midterm levels of 2014 and all but one (a county) showing turnout above 2016.
2) If I recall all the data correctly, D turnout/performance was below that of 2016 and, in the case of IA, below that of 2014.
3) Now we have two more data points to add: news out of WY that a net of 10k switched from D/other to R in last six months & turnout #s in Knox Co. TN. Out of 12 MEASURABLE data points--not polls which are opinions of what people "might" do in the future---every single one is favors the Rs.
4) I'll admit, I got a tad depressed for a minute yesterday when the latest Siena/NYT polls came out . . . before I was reminded they were making 60,000 calls to reach a mere 300 respondents.
SIXTY THOUSAND!
5) Who do you think is NOT responding?
Conservatives, Republicans, people with families & jobs.
6) That means these NYT polls are utterly worthless with a margin of error of 20% or more
7) So once again, we have real world data about what has ALREADY HAPPENED, stuff we can count . . . and unreliable polls of the opinions of people who won't even vote about what they might do if it doesn't rain or if they don't have a hangnail that day.
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