Nate Silver: Trump 57.5% Chance of Winning

[jfrog]

Originally Posted by n david

7.5% today.



This is absurd. As stated before, regardless of Silver's accuracy from past elections, I don't believe this for a second. Seriously, this is claiming Hillary would get almost 500 of the 538 available electoral votes.

That would be like me saying I give it a 90% chance the Steelers will beat the Browns in football this year and then you coming back with "that can't be right they will never score 90 points while the Browns score 10."



The man is not forecasting the margin of victory only the chance for victory.

[deacon blues]

Originally Posted by Esaias

So, you actually would be willing to see the country destroyed by the Clinton Crime Family in order to satisfy some crazy personal vendetta against a guy who said "mean things" against the clown you voted for?

Well, thankfully, you won't have a role in deciding which candidate becomes President, along with the rest of the clueless population, so there is that.

You can always be comforted knowing that Trump *might* read your post and feel bad.

Classic post

[deacon blues]

Originally Posted by Originalist

Actually, for most who oppose him, it is an accurate statement. I understand that it does not apply to you. But when people are more offended at Trump's rudeness than they are Hillary's crimes, we are done.

Seriously---folks act like Trump is such a danger to our way of life all the while ignoring the obvious, glaring truth that Obama and Hillary and the Democrats are playing with fire and have been for most of the past eight years! WE KNOW WHAT WE ARE GOING TO GET WITH HILLARY---it's worth giving DT a shot.

[deacon blues]

Originally Posted by jfrog

That would be like me saying I give it a 90% chance the Steelers will beat the Browns in football this year and then you coming back with "that can't be right they will never score 90 points while the Browns score 10."



The man is not forecasting the margin of victory only the chance for victory.

Well, cut ND some slack. This election is kind of complicated for him.

[deacon blues]

After months of Nate Silver predicting Donald Trump's demise, the updated prediction is that Trump has a 54.9% chance of winning.

[Jermyn Davidson]

The Clinton Campaign need not waste valuable resources in Ohio. She is done here.

She needs to sure up NC, Michigan, and Nevada because she will not win Ohio and she will probably lose Pennsylvania too.

Everyone thinks they know her and they're probably right.

[jfrog]

Michigan will be trumps. Carrier is what everyone is missing. That will decide the whole manufacturing midwest

[n david]

Mike Pence was here in Phoenix a couple weeks ago, and now Trump will be visiting north Arizona. The last time Arizona was won by the Democrats was with Bill Clinton. Trump is only up by 2 here in Arizona right now, and if you factor in the +/- it's a dead heat. So it's not surprising, though disappointing for conservatives, that Trump is having to spend time a month before election in what should be a dark red state.

What's interesting is HRC hasn't visited Arizona. With it being this close and Trump's abysmal polling with Hispanics here, I'm really surprised she hasn't campaigned here to try and flip the state.

[Jermyn Davidson]

Arizona might flip without heavy campaigning from HRC.

Trump squandered the overwhelming national support he would have had to appeal to the prejudices and fears of a GOP base that had drifted too far to the right in the years and months leading up to this election season.

[Jermyn Davidson]

On Super Tuesday, March 1, 2016, Donald Trump won 7 of 11 state primaries based on statements and sentiments that exploited the prejudices and fears of educated and voting GOP members.