My Election Prediction.

[Parkbench]

From tv clips the early voter lines are long and lined with mostly black voters. Not saying all are voting for Obama but I'd be willing to bet 99% of them are.

If the blacks are voting early in such huge numbers then how many do you expect to see in line on election day?

The additional newly registered black voters will be what delivers Obama a win.

[Sherri]

There was an overwhelming majority of black voters at the early voting in Jackson. Percentage-wise, it was way more than the percentage of the population at large.

I still think righteousness is going to prevail and that McCain will win! I have to hold onto hope.

[Blubayou]

We tried to vote early and just gave up and the voters were predominately black where we went, but overall the early voters in our city were about 50/50 along race lines. I do think if the young voters get out to vote that will be in Obama's favor. We were at a party tonight and several parents said their first time voter children were solid Obama supporters.

[TalkLady]

Originally Posted by Sherri

There was an overwhelming majority of black voters at the early voting in Jackson. Percentage-wise, it was way more than the percentage of the population at large.

I still think righteousness is going to prevail and that McCain will win! I have to hold onto hope.

[RunningOnFaith]

Originally Posted by vrblackwell

How do I come to this conclusion?

In 2004 Kerry was ahead of Bush in the polls on election day by 7%. We all know who won.
.

Myth.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Pre.../pa_polls.html

[RunningOnFaith]

Originally Posted by Stephen Hoover

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1623

Pollster John Zogby: "Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all. "Obama's lead among women declined, and it looks like it is occurring because McCain is solidifying the support of conservative women, which is something we saw last time McCain picked up in the polls. If McCain has a good day tomorrow, we will eliminate Obama's good day three days ago, and we could really see some tightening in this rolling average. But for now, hold on."

November 2, 2008

Pollster John Zogby: "Obama has consolidated his lead over McCain. His single day lead today was back to 52%-42%. He leads by 10 among independents and has solidified his base. He leads among Hispanics by38 points, African Americans by 88, 18-24 year olds by 36, 18-29 year olds by 25, 25-34 year olds by 16, women by 8, and men by 3. He has a 17 point lead among those who have already voted, 22 by those who have registered to vote in the past 6 months, Moderates by 34, Catholics by 10. He even receives 21% support among Conservatives.

"So what happened to give McCain a one-point lead in the one-day polling on Friday? It was a day of consolidation for him, too. He had been losing support among key groups and began to regain some of his own base. He now leads by 21 points among NASCAR fans, 9 among investors, 6 among voters in armed forces households, and 2 among voters over 65 years old.

"Remember, as I said yesterday, one day does not make a trend. This is a three-day rolling average and no changes have been tectonic. A special note to blogger friends: calm it down. Lay off the cable television noise and look at your baseball cards in your spare time. It is better for your (and everyone else's) health."

[Neck]

Originally Posted by vrblackwell

I predict that John McCain will win Tuesday.

However, if Obama wins, he will not have the popular vote. I predict McCain to win the popular vote big.

How do I come to this conclusion?

In 2004 Kerry was ahead of Bush in the polls on election day by 7%. We all know who won.

Obama is ahead of McCain in Pennsylvania write now by 3 or 4 percent. In 2004 Kerry was leading Bush in Pennsylvania by 15% on election day. He only won that state by 2 or 3 percent.

I think that Obama will have to be up by 10 percent or more in the polls in order to win.

The polls always have the Democrat leading in the polls. And the republican has won in in the last two elections.

When it comes to elections we are judged only by how we vote.

That is my personal conclusion.

I have not understood polling for many reasons.

I have not been called one time this year.

If there has been some 600 plus state and national polls.

4 or 5 times the number of polls as there were in 2004.

Why have I not been called?

Maybe for the same reason I only receive McCain adds in the mail.

Someone out there has my name on a not to call list.

If they call a McCain supporter it will hurt their polling numbers.

I personally believe they are calling Democrats and those otherwise not known for certain the party affiliation.

I can still see the dumb founded look on Al Gore, John Kerrry and John Edwards faces as they lost.

[TRFrance]

Originally Posted by RunningOnFaith

Myth.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Pre.../pa_polls.html

Good post.
I was thinking the same thing.

Thanks for looking that up.

[MikeinAR]

Originally Posted by RunningOnFaith

Myth.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Pre.../pa_polls.html

The RCP average has been fairly accurate. I pay attention to that site and their working of the poll numbers more than any of the others.

I still believe Barack Obama will win between 280 and 300 electoral votes. I think it's very possible that he wins by a 5% margin in the popular vote.

One last prediction, I think we may know early on. IF Barack Obama wins VA and PA, then it'll be a long night for John McCain. IF Obama were to carry Florida or North Carolina, it's lights out for John McCain.

Obviously on the flip side, IF McCain can win 3 out of those 4 early, I think he can have a very good night.

[jimmyrrs]

How much does the media play in voting? I try to study for myself and read other sources, but a few people only listen to the news. Yes some will vote party line no matter what. How do you support the way you vote.