I was thinking Fred as the savvy old warrior type who is rock solid to compliment Newt's rather mercurial private reputation.
And besides, most of the stuff about Newt is exaggerated. He's not "pristine" - but then he doesn't claim to be personally. I sort of trust guys (and gals?) who have "erred" and are open about it. That's one thing I never beat up Limbaugh about either - Rush already beats himself up mercilessly when it comes to his own failures at marriage.
It's the self righteous puritanical "do gooder" that I'm uncomfortable with in a position of political power. That's how the Dems play it. Publicly their "open marriages" are long lasting "relationships" - while privately their all a bunch of satyrs.
I much prefer the guy who has all of his cards on the table over the guy who has his interns on his desk.
I am with you but public perception is different.
AND the democrat Saul Alinsky machine will crank into overdrive if Newt wins. It will be all sex all the time. The same guys who said "its just sex" about Clinton will be aghast at Newts peccadilloes....
it disgusts me that they get away with it but that is the world we live in.
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Honestly I see slim pickins on the republican side. There are some good Governors but you have to stand next to a slick talking fool to win. (Obama)
If Jindal keeps it up he is going to build a great reputation with this oil spill. It might put him in the Whitehouse. His Resume is outstanding.
Pawlinty (sp) looks pretty good but not sure about him.
IF (and it is a big IF) things go really south economically Obama wont have a chance. in that scenario Newt will try really hard to get the nomination. I think Newt knows his only chance is if Obama really makes a mess of things.
Palin will be in it. (I dont like her). I dont see anyone from the Senate that can really win. Americans like Governors.
Oh and I do NOT like Rick Perry. I think he will run but I dont think he can or should win.
If OB wins again it will again be because of the media. If the media treated him like they do the republicans he would be history and bailing out now.
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If OB wins again it will again be because of the media. If the media treated him like they do the republicans he would be history and bailing out now.
Esther, as much as I agree that the media has a hard liberal bias, I dont agree with this.
Obama will be reelected on no more than 3 things.
Number 1: Economy. If the economy is bad Obama loses. If the economy is good he wins. if the unemployment numbers are above 9% he is sunk if below 8% he wins.
Number 2 War weariness. If Afghanistan turns south Obama's poll numbers will drop and this will drive down democrat intensity in the turn out and hurt him. it can be a killer. this is what got GWB. before the economy went south.
Number 3 is the Right Track Wrong Track number. as long as that number is below 50% Obama will have a hard time.
This thrid thing is really a reflection of the first two things. the Economy is the over-arching thing. The media cannot white wash bad economic news.
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If OB wins again it will again be because of the media. If the media treated him like they do the republicans he would be history and bailing out now.
When he wins his second term, it will be partly because the GOP is fractured and can't put forth a comparable candidate, and partly because of the fact that he is doing a decent job. Those that voted for him last time aren't going to suddenly turn around and vote Republican.
As for the media, they are just as critical of Obama as they are of anyone else.
When he wins his second term, it will be partly because the GOP is fractured and can't put forth a comparable candidate, and partly because of the fact that he is doing a decent job. Those that voted for him last time aren't going to suddenly turn around and vote Republican.
As for the media, they are just as critical of Obama as they are of anyone else.
First, the media has been very slow to turn on him. much more so than his predicessor.
second, IF the voters who voted for him see the economy as not great, they will turn on him and vote the other guy. It happens quite often.
As for doing a decent job, the jury is still out. there are clear indications that he has not done a great job. there are other indicators that suggest we just dont really know. there are some things he has done well and there are some things that his base thinks he has done well.
we are at least a year and a half away from knowing the real answer.
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First, the media has been very slow to turn on him. much more so than his predicessor.
second, IF the voters who voted for him see the economy as not great, they will turn on him and vote the other guy. It happens quite often.
As for doing a decent job, the jury is still out. there are clear indications that he has not done a great job. there are other indicators that suggest we just dont really know. there are some things he has done well and there are some things that his base thinks he has done well.
we are at least a year and a half away from knowing the real answer.
Slow to turn on him? He has only been in office for a little over a year. What, you wanted them to turn on him 6 months into his first term? lol
As for your other points, I agree it is too early to definitely say one way or the other in regards to his competency. My point still stands, though, that the people that voted from him last time are probably going to vote for him this time. He would have to get caught with a sheep in the Oval Office to cause Democrats to vote for any of the potential Republican candidates.
Slow to turn on him? He has only been in office for a little over a year. What, you wanted them to turn on him 6 months into his first term? lol
As for your other points, I agree it is too early to definitely say one way or the other in regards to his competency. My point still stands, though, that the people that voted from him last time are probably going to vote for him this time. He would have to get caught with a sheep in the Oval Office to cause Democrats to vote for any of the potential Republican candidates.
First, much of the media has not turned on him. He is taking some hits from the overtly liberal media members like MSNBC for not being liberal enough.
There are some cracks related to the Gulf Oil mess but not really serious issues.
There are any number of things that the media would have tarred and feathered GWB for that they have left Obama alone over.
As for voters goinv for someone else, Obama wasnt elected by democrats. He gets those votes of course. that represents about 40% of the electorate. Obama won for 3 basic reasons.
1. Moderate independant voters (swing voters ) voted for him
2. Conservative turn out was low
3. Previous low voting groups were energized to vote for him.
Moderate voters will turn on Obama just as they have always turned on the guy in power when the economy is not strong.
Conservative voters will be turning out in record numbers no matter what because we have a viseral dislike for Obama who is seen as an Socialist.
Previous low voting groups will only be energized if they feel they "got something" from Obama. At this point that jury is still out. These people tend to be on the low end of the Socio-Economic ladder and they tend to be the first to lose jobs and the last to get jobs back. not having a job will turn lots of these people off if the economy doesnt improve.
Obama is still the odds on favorite to win in 2012 IMHO but every day the economy doesnt improve, and every day the oil mess worsens those odds shrink.
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Honestly I see slim pickins on the republican side. There are some good Governors but you have to stand next to a slick talking fool to win. (Obama)
If Jindal keeps it up he is going to build a great reputation with this oil spill. It might put him in the Whitehouse. His Resume is outstanding.
Pawlinty (sp) looks pretty good but not sure about him.
IF (and it is a big IF) things go really south economically Obama wont have a chance. in that scenario Newt will try really hard to get the nomination. I think Newt knows his only chance is if Obama really makes a mess of things.
Palin will be in it. (I dont like her). I dont see anyone from the Senate that can really win. Americans like Governors.Oh and I do NOT like Rick Perry. I think he will run but I dont think he can or should win.
They like stable candidates more than they like Governors, I think. Missed on the Obama election, but that was because the Republicans totally ruined their own chances by not staying true to their core values.
I don't think Perry could win it either, but he's done well for Texas. I would vote for Jindal, hands down.
I am also very proud of Chris Christie right now! They said that he ran a good campaign, but he would not make a good Governor. Looks like he's governing well and not being intimidated.
I remember watching CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference) back in February. One of the speakers had finished his speech, left the stage, came back and said (words to effect) - "Watch for the dark horse candidate in 2012." Can't speculate on that one. Any thoughts? I haven't heard a word through the grapevine. Watching for it, though.
I think that Mike Pence is very stately and will respond more on that subject on the thread you started concerning facts on Presidential politics.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ferd
Conservative voters will be turning out in record numbers no matter what because we have a viseral dislike for Obama who is seen as an Socialist.
I think moderate voters have the same opinion. I think that even if the economy is doing better, which would only be a natural rebounding occurrence, Obama will still be seen as a Socialist. I think that will override everything, especially, because the Tea Partiers are so up in arms and out in force. Some say the movement is abating, but I don't think that it is.
They like stable candidates more than they like Governors, I think. Missed on the Obama election, but that was because the Republicans totally ruined their own chances by not staying true to their core values.
I don't think Perry could win it either, but he's done well for Texas. I would vote for Jindal, hands down.
I am also very proud of Chris Christie right now! They said that he ran a good campaign, but he would not make a good Governor. Looks like he's governing well and not being intimidated.
I remember watching CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference) back in February. One of the speakers had finished his speech, left the stage, came back and said (words to effect) - "Watch for the dark horse candidate in 2012." Can't speculate on that one. Any thoughts? I haven't heard a word through the grapevine. Watching for it, though.
I think that Mike Pence is very stately and will respond more on that subject on the thread you started concerning facts on Presidential politics.
I think moderate voters have the same opinion. I think that even if the economy is doing better, which would only be a natural rebounding occurrence, Obama will still be seen as a Socialist. I think that will override everything, especially, because the Tea Partiers are so up in arms and out in force. Some say the movement is abating, but I don't think that it is.
I would vote for Pence in a general. I dont think he has the best chance of winning.
Perry has issues that will hurt him. There are questions about money connected to a fund he controls.
Christy is awesome... as Gov. of New Jersey but I dont know if he can win a nationa Primary. He is pro abortion and is not opposed to some gun control...
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