I'm sure the folks at Newsmax are hoping they're right and with the accuracy of polling, it still's an outside possibility it'll be that close. That said, Gallup has Obama widening his lead today in all three of their polls after seeing some tightening early in the week. http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx Also the RCP averages(which have been very accurate in the past) in the key battleground states like PA, VA, and CO that McCain HAS to win are all way out of the margin of error for Obama. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...lls/index.html
It's not certain yet, but I expect to the polling will show a bump of at least two or three points for Obama after the infomercial the other night. Thirty minutes of unchallenged air time on major networks is a very hard thing for McCain to defend.
John McCain lost this election by losing Virginia, Colorado and Pennsylvania. Ferd has a saying that applies here, "It's church", IMO. McCain simply lost too much ground in September after the economic mess and with the pick of Palin.
Lets be clear, I said it was church long before the republican nominee was even picked. The dems could run member of Saddam Hussians family and they would win this election.
its always been the dems year and I dont see anything to tell me different.
Its a gut punch but still the truth..... the only silver lining I can find is that the dems will likely go so far to the left that in 2 years the republicans will clean their clocks in the house.
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i hate to differ but palin is helping mccain, we will see, i think that people saying she hurts him is huey, lol
I agree. the early talk that she was helping with independants may not be accurate but she has certainly energized the base. without that McCain had half the chance he has now which at best is still slim.
the only thing that even keeps me interested is that Obama should be head by 15 pionts at least but he isnt. I still say he will win 300 electoral votes and a decisive victory in the popular vote but the fact that this thing isnt yet out of hand is kind of interesting.
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I think Sarah Palin is an intelligent, nice lady. I admire her christian beliefs and her accomplishments in her short political career. I've sized her up for almost two months now, and have come to the conclusion she's not qualified to be President. She was disastrous with Charlie Gipson and Katie Couric on simple questions like, "what newspapers and magazines do you read?". Why am I supposed to trust that she can handle Ahmadinejad, Pakistan, and Iraq? She hasn't traveled to other parts of the world and doesn't show any real grasp of the issues. I think John McCain would have picked up on most of this as well if he'd met her more than once.I know most here will disagree with me, but that's my conclusion on Sarah Palin.
Now, give her four more years to familiarize herself with foreign policy issues, dealing with the national media, and staying on message in a campaign and I think she'll be a formidable opponent in 2012 in the primaries.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DividedThigh
i hate to differ but palin is helping mccain, we will see, i think that people saying she hurts him is huey, lol
Before John McCain picked Sarah Palin, he was leading with Independents by 15%. Today, Barack Obama is winning with Indepedents by 10%. A good percentage of those Independents have an unfavorable view of Palin and the majority don't feel she's qualified.
If you're looking at some other info, I'd be glad to see something that says Sarah Palin helped with anyone except solid base Republicans.
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In essentials, unity. In non-essentials, liberty. In all things, charity. Augustine
I agree. the early talk that she was helping with independants may not be accurate but she has certainly energized the base. without that McCain had half the chance he has now which at best is still slim.
the only thing that even keeps me interested is that Obama should be head by 15 pionts at least but he isnt. I still say he will win 300 electoral votes and a decisive victory in the popular vote but the fact that this thing isnt yet out of hand is kind of interesting.
I stand by my prediction of somewhere between 280 and 300 electoral votes for Obama. I'd be surprised if he wins by more than 5 or 6% in the popular vote, though.
The amount of closeness still in this race really makes you wonder what would have happened had McCain's campaign been ran right. Rick Davis, Nicole Wallace and others owe Mac an apology. I wonder if sometimes he doesn't regret firing Mike Murphy.
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In essentials, unity. In non-essentials, liberty. In all things, charity. Augustine
I stand by my prediction of somewhere between 280 and 300 electoral votes for Obama. I'd be surprised if he wins by more than 5 or 6% in the popular vote, though.
The amount of closeness still in this race really makes you wonder what would have happened had McCain's campaign been ran right. Rick Davis, Nicole Wallace and others owe Mac an apology. I wonder if sometimes he doesn't regret firing Mike Murphy.
Mike, honestly we can look at this thing and see mistakes and missteps. I yelled at the television in all 3 M/O debates because I had better answers than McCain almost every time.
but the reality as far as i am concerned is, if this set of mistakes were not made, we would be talking about other mistakes.
The mistakes only matter for the loser. But McCain was never going to win. Not without massive mistakes by the democrat.
Obama neither made massive mistakes nor did the media do its job to explore his history.
American Elections are alway referendums on something. This was at first a referendum on George Bush and the Republican party with 60% not happy.
Then it was a referendum on Barak Obama on wheither or not he is capable of holding the job. he has done nothing to suggest he cant.
This election was never about what McCain was or was not doing.
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I said that wrong. I think Obama will have 53% of the popular vote so that will leave McCain with somewhere around 46% with the rest to third parties. or some such thats 7%
I base this first on history then on the state match ups.... but I weight towards history. History says it wont be close.
the only thing keeping this close is it seems there is a general unease with Obama the man. and honestly I am not factoring that in much.
History says Obama should win almost 400 electoral votes and have a 10 point lead in the electoral vote.
__________________ If I do something stupid blame the Lortab!
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