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11-01-2008, 01:01 PM
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Registered Member
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Springfield, MO
Posts: 462
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My Election Prediction.
I predict that John McCain will win Tuesday.
However, if Obama wins, he will not have the popular vote. I predict McCain to win the popular vote big.
How do I come to this conclusion?
In 2004 Kerry was ahead of Bush in the polls on election day by 7%. We all know who won.
Obama is ahead of McCain in Pennsylvania write now by 3 or 4 percent. In 2004 Kerry was leading Bush in Pennsylvania by 15% on election day. He only won that state by 2 or 3 percent.
I think that Obama will have to be up by 10 percent or more in the polls in order to win.
The polls always have the Democrat leading in the polls. And the republican has won in in the last two elections.
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Never burn the bridge of mercy... You never know when you will need it to cross.
Doctrine makes a wonderful servant but a horrible master!
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11-01-2008, 05:48 PM
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Supercalifragilisticexpiali...
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 19,197
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Re: My Election Prediction.
I feel similarly... But I think mcCain needs to close the gap down to 3% The current momentum looks good.
I sure hope you are right! I will throw one huge party!
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"It is inhumane, in my opinion, to force people who have a genuine medical need for coffee to wait in line behind people who apparently view it as some kind of recreational activity." Dave Barry 2005
I am a firm believer in the Old Paths
Articles on such subjects as "The New Birth," will be accepted, whether they teach that the new birth takes place before baptism in water and Spirit, or that the new birth consists of baptism of water and Spirit. - THE PENTECOSTAL HERALD Dec. 1945
"It is doubtful if any Trinitarian Pentecostals have ever professed to believe in three gods, and Oneness Pentecostals should not claim that they do." - Daniel Segraves
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11-01-2008, 06:01 PM
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Matthew 7:6
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 4,768
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Re: My Election Prediction.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stephen Hoover
I feel similarly... But I think mcCain needs to close the gap down to 3% The current momentum looks good.
I sure hope you are right! I will throw one huge party!
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I'm not sure about that momentum you're talking about...
Gallup Daily: Obama 52%, McCain 42% Among Likely Voters
Largest lead for Obama among likely voters to date
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111661/Ga...ly-Voters.aspx
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http://endtimeobserver.blogspot.com
Daniel 12:3 And those who are wise shall shine like the brightness of the firmament; and those who turn many to righteousness, like the stars for ever.
 I'm T France, and I approved this message.
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11-01-2008, 06:03 PM
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Supercalifragilisticexpiali...
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 19,197
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Re: My Election Prediction.
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1623
Pollster John Zogby: "Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all. "Obama's lead among women declined, and it looks like it is occurring because McCain is solidifying the support of conservative women, which is something we saw last time McCain picked up in the polls. If McCain has a good day tomorrow, we will eliminate Obama's good day three days ago, and we could really see some tightening in this rolling average. But for now, hold on."
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"It is inhumane, in my opinion, to force people who have a genuine medical need for coffee to wait in line behind people who apparently view it as some kind of recreational activity." Dave Barry 2005
I am a firm believer in the Old Paths
Articles on such subjects as "The New Birth," will be accepted, whether they teach that the new birth takes place before baptism in water and Spirit, or that the new birth consists of baptism of water and Spirit. - THE PENTECOSTAL HERALD Dec. 1945
"It is doubtful if any Trinitarian Pentecostals have ever professed to believe in three gods, and Oneness Pentecostals should not claim that they do." - Daniel Segraves
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11-01-2008, 06:05 PM
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Mama to four little angels.
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Texas
Posts: 3,053
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Re: My Election Prediction.
My prediction is that Obama is going to win.
I've thought that from the beginning, that either Hillary or Obama would win...depending on who finally won the democratic nomination. I think they shot the candidate in the foot when they were fighting so stupidly, but I still think Obama is going to come out ahead and be our next president.
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You become free from who you have become, by becoming who you were meant to be. ~Mark from another forum I post on
God did it for us. Out of sheer generosity he put us in right standing with himself. A pure gift. He got us out of the mess we're in and restored us to where he always wanted us to be. And he did it by means of Jesus Christ. ~Romans 3:24 from The Message
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11-01-2008, 06:06 PM
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Honorary Admin
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Sandusky, Ohio
Posts: 6,287
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Re: My Election Prediction.
All I can say is that I hope you are right! I'm not a doomsayer, but I have been preparing to say President Obama for the next 4 years. Not that I want that, just trying to prepare to do it without puking! 
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"Those who go after the "Sauls" among us often slay the Davids among us." Gene Edwards
Executive Servant http://www.newlife-church.org
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11-01-2008, 07:56 PM
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Registered Member
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 884
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Re: My Election Prediction.
VB, I hope and pray you are right and JM wins!.... As far as polls, we were called sometimes three times per day or more. Finally, I told the person, I have already voted for McCain. After that no more calls.
Let's all pray, pray and pray again.
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Pray for America!
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11-01-2008, 08:29 PM
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Registered Member
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: North of I-10
Posts: 2,831
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Re: My Election Prediction.
I talked to my nephew today, he is a pollster and works elections for a living. He said that McCain had closed the polls to 4 points and it was too close to call. He explained that with the point spread that close no one can predict the Bradley effect on voters. The undecided votes are indicative of voters who do not feel comfortable saying who they will vote for because it is not "politically correct." He said the battleground states would decide the president and it would be a very close election. He then gave me some local races and who would win in those. He has been on target most of the time.
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11-01-2008, 08:40 PM
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Registered Member
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Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 1,663
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Re: My Election Prediction.
Obama in a landslide.
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I'm (sic) not cynical, I just haven't been around long enough to be Jedi mind-tricked by politics as usual. Alas, maybe in a few years I'll be beaten back into the herd. tstew
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11-01-2008, 08:49 PM
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Pot Stirrer
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Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 6,102
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Re: My Election Prediction.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Charnock
Obama in a landslide.
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The tide is swinging back towards McCain. The polls are hesitant to indicate this because they favor the democratic side but it's finally coming out.
the undecided votes are between 7%-14% and almost totally going for McCain
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