I'll be the first to say it

Originalist · #1 10-06-2020, 09:42 AM

Logically, and historically, Trump should be re-elected fairly easily. This is classically the case for most incumbents, even during tough times. George H.W. Bush would have been re-elected had it not been for Ross Perot. Carter was strapped with a looming Soviet threat that he ignored, the Iranian hostage crisis, and a lagging economy. He is the outlier in all of this.

Trump has a solid economy, even with Covid disrupting it. His policies are popular. The wall is underway. We are completely energy independent and now surpassing the Saudis as the world's largest energy exporter. Trump's approval rating is lagging a bit but most likely will be at 50% on election day just like Obama's was.

In spite of every indicator that he should win, he will not. I hate to say it. Here are the reasons why.

1. Ohio voters are fickle. Factory closings continued after Trump took office. Oh, that trend is already slowing down and will completely reverse in a second Trump term. But that is not enough quick enough for the average blue collar worker there who will vote the Dems back in even though they blame the Dems for jobs being shipped out of the country. They are shallow and lack foresight.

2. Though Trump has withstood the media like no other President in history, the onslaught of lies and mistruths has begun to make just enough voters weary to the point they believe voting Trump out will cause discord to subside.

3. Voter fraud will be rampant and will cost Trump the rust belt states he won last time.

So, I predict a narrow Biden win on election night. May God permit me to be wrong about this.

AMENDMENT: Whie I agree that polls will tighten by election day, I still predict that Rasmaussen's weekly election poll released tomorrow will show Biden up by a full 10. Rasmaussen is one of the most unbiased polls out there.

Esaias · #2 10-06-2020, 10:01 AM

You still think Presidents are selected by voters. Good grief.

/thread

Originalist · #3 10-06-2020, 10:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Esaias

You still think Presidents are selected by voters. Good grief.

/thread

You believe that all elections have been fake. Good grief.

Truthseeker · #4 10-06-2020, 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Esaias

You still think Presidents are selected by voters. Good grief.

/thread

What do you think would happen if only 25% of Biden voters showed up to vote?

Jito463 · #5 10-06-2020, 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Esaias

You still think Presidents are selected by voters. Good grief.

/thread

While technically you're right, the voters do influence the Electoral College votes. So while the popular vote may not elect the president, it doesn't mean they have no affect at all.

Pressing-On · #6 10-06-2020, 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jito463

While technically you're right, the voters do influence the Electoral College votes. So while the popular vote may not elect the president, it doesn't mean they have no affect at all.

I also believe that if Biden wins, it will simply be because of voter fraud that they have purposefully set up for that purpose.

I still believe that Trump will get a blow out win. I am hearing and seeing many people register to vote who have never voted in the past (people in my own family), many who have been never-Trumpers (like myself) change their minds, and I believe there is a silent majority who will speak on Election Day. I do not believe this country wants Kamala Harris as President.

TJJJ · #7 10-06-2020, 10:52 AM

Elections in this country are funny, and the judging after is quite skewed.

Take for instance the "Popular vote versus the electoral vote.

Hillary appeared to win the popular vote by almost 3 million more votes, but even that is not really an indicator of the real popular vote.

Let me give an example of that.

In many strong Trump states many who would have and could have voted for Trump didn't. Why? because they knew that in their state the electoral was already destined for Trump so.. why bother? They just sat at home and watched it play out. The problem with that is for the record, their vote didn't matter.

Clintons people were more galvanized to vote and they did, but they still lost the electoral vote in most states thus giving Trump the victory.

I see a situation today that is much more polarizing than 4 years ago. We are closer to civil war in many areas than ever before. I fully expect more people to get out and vote than 4 years ago. It is going to be interesting, that is for sure.

Pressing-On · #8 10-06-2020, 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TJJJ

Elections in this country are funny, and the judging after is quite skewed.

Take for instance the "Popular vote versus the electoral vote.

Hillary appeared to win the popular vote by almost 3 million more votes, but even that is not really an indicator of the real popular vote.

Let me give an example of that.

In many strong Trump states many who would have and could have voted for Trump didn't. Why? because they knew that in their state the electoral was already destined for Trump so.. why bother? They just sat at home and watched it play out. The problem with that is for the record, their vote didn't matter.

Clintons people were more galvanized to vote and they did, but they still lost the electoral vote in most states thus giving Trump the victory.

I see a situation today that is much more polarizing than 4 years ago. We are closer to civil war in many areas than ever before. I fully expect more people to get out and vote than 4 years ago. It is going to be interesting, that is for sure.

A candidate has to win from 3-5% of the popular vote to win the electoral college. Hillary only got 2%.

TJJJ · #9 10-06-2020, 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pressing-On

A candidate has to win from 3-5% of the popular vote to win the electoral college. Hillary only got 2%.

You are right. I was speaking of the numerical difference I guess.

What I was saying was that the reason that Trumps numbers weren't quite as high was that in many of his strongholds people assumed that Trump was going to win there and just got .... lazy?

I think this time that it is going to be higher.

As far as Biden's poll numbers.... they are not correct. This is traditional for every election. The poll numbers right now are trying to be used by various ones and are being manipulated. As the elections draw closer then the numbers will get closer to being true because otherwise the pollsters would lose their reputations. We saw that 4 years ago and we will see that again this year. Watch as the election draws closer and you will see the polls tighten. Whoever wins will probably win by small percentage of popular vote.

Pressing-On · #10 10-06-2020, 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TJJJ

You are right. I was speaking of the numerical difference I guess.

What I was saying was that the reason that Trumps numbers weren't quite as high was that in many of his strongholds people assumed that Trump was going to win there and just got .... lazy?

I think this time that it is going to be higher.

As far as Biden's poll numbers.... they are not correct. This is traditional for every election. The poll numbers right now are trying to be used by various ones and are being manipulated. As the elections draw closer then the numbers will get closer to being true because otherwise the pollsters would lose their reputations. We saw that 4 years ago and we will see that again this year. Watch as the election draws closer and you will see the polls tighten. Whoever wins will probably win by small percentage of popular vote.

Because we are such a closely divided nation, I can see that. However, I am taking Blexit into consideration and the Hispanic poll after the debate. It looks like a substantial swing toward Trump, regardless of how the media is reporting it. He may win on a larger margin than what is being anticipated. We shall see.