Latest projections for fall elections

Walks_in_islam · #1 08-19-2010, 04:35 AM

The site electionprojections.com is pretty good at interpreting individual polls on individual nationwide races. The latest projection is 214:221 Republicans to Democrats. The ratio has been creeping up over the last few weeks with a few key races neck in neck. There appears to be a chance that republicans could take over the house, which may be good because gridlock is better than bad policy. Their latest blog (from their site http://www.electionprojection.com/index.php)

Democratic House majority is in serious jeopardy
Election Projection's House tally stands at 221 Democrats and 214 Republicans. A net of 35 seats are now projected to go to the GOP on November 2, just 4 shy of a Republican majority. That count, like an approaching thunderstorm, has risen slowly over the last weeks and months and shows no signs of stopping short of the 39-seat mark needed to remove the gavel from Nancy Pelosi's hand. Yesterday, Charlie Cook raised his GOP takeover range to 35-45 seats, moving ten House seat ratings in the Republicans' direction. Earlier this week, both Gallup and Rasmussen released record advantages for the GOP in their respective congressional generic surveys. And today, the four seats needed for the GOP's first projected majority in the House here at EP are a hair's breadth from red territory.
In three races - FL-2, NC-8 and OH-16 - the Democrat leads by 0.1%, and in a fourth, NM-1, the lead is just 0.3%. It is entirely possible the next batch of pundit rating changes or generic surveys could usher in the first projected GOP majority in the House since early in 2006. Beyond the majority, however, potential gains remain numerous. A shift of 2.1% across the board would yield a 50-seat gain for Republicans. That would give the GOP 229 seats in the House - almost as many as they held at their highest point during the 12 years of GOP control from 1994 to 2006.

There's a wave building out there, a political wave of a decidedly crimson hue. It's coming, and it's growing as it nears. It hasn't gotten to us yet; it won't until November. But we can hear it already, and the sound is getting louder. To quote the agent from The Matrix, the sound you hear, if you care to listen, "is the sound of inevitability." And unlike Neo, the Democrat majority doesn't appear capable of a super-human escape.

pelathais · #2 08-19-2010, 01:26 PM

"Gridlock" is often the preferred form of governance for any free people.

Sam · #3 08-19-2010, 01:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pelathais

"Gridlock" is often the preferred form of governance for any free people.

yeah, they're not spending our money as recklessly and stupidly when there is gridlock

RandyWayne · #4 08-19-2010, 11:21 PM

I would vote for a robot or computer (or even a parrot) who only said "Nay!" on every vote to come before it.

Walks_in_islam · #5 09-03-2010, 10:50 AM

Ratings change:

Pasted from electionprojections.com

Rating change: GOP picks up two more Senate seats

The balance of power in the Senate, in my view, hinges on a few Democratic leaning seats. No doubt Republicans will pick up several seats in the Senate, but whether that number will be enough to take back the majority is unknown. To accomplish this feat, they'll need to take a net of 10 seats in the upper chamber. Five of those 10 appear likely. They are Arkansas, Delaware, Indiana, North Dakota and Pennsylvania. Three more are pretty much toss-ups right now, Colorado, Illinois and Nevada.

The House is 3 seats from changing hands. There may not be gridlock after all but hopefully when the dust clears there will be fiscal discipline and the new class will work to get us out of the hole we have been digging for the last 10 years.

Sam · #6 09-03-2010, 11:18 AM

A couple of days ago I heard two Christians say that they believe John Boehner will be the next speaker of the house. One said, "I don't know if this is me or if it is the Lord. We'll just have to wait and see."

One person said that she believes John Boehner will be President some day.

Walks_in_islam · #7 09-03-2010, 12:31 PM

Your friend may be right after all. A lot of new polls must have come out today as the HOUSE as well as the Senate is now projected to change hands.

There are still 7-8 seats that are effectively tossups so it may get worse for the Dems.

Projections for Friday, September 3, 2010

Projected Change:

Democrats 215 Republicans 220
-41 +41

NOTHING will please me better than Barbara Boxer on the street looking for a real job in this economy they gave us. No matter who the president is, Congress and only Congress is responsible for fiscal policy. This one should be jailed for check-kiting.

Light · #8 09-03-2010, 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sam

A couple of days ago I heard two Christians say that they believe John Boehner will be the next speaker of the house. One said, "I don't know if this is me or if it is the Lord. We'll just have to wait and see."

One person said that she believes John Boehner will be President some day.

My lord what a terrible thought !!! Probably the last nights pizza talking.

coadie · #9 09-03-2010, 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Light

My lord what a terrible thought !!! Probably the last nights pizza talking.

Your heart will be broken if Pelosi is gone? We could see abortion funding at risk.

Bowas · #10 09-03-2010, 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pelathais

"Gridlock" is often the preferred form of governance for any free people.

"Gridlock" is the design our founders had in mind when they developed the separtion of powers concept here. An efficient government is a dangerous government. Ours is designed to keep them busy in D.C. with each other and leaving us alone.
Our founders were God inspired geniuses.