If Obama Wins, It Will Be Because He Was Lucky

[jdm05]

Originally Posted by deacon blues

Obama will win, if he does, because of fortune. Bush is at very low levels of favorability, mistakes in the Iraq War created enough years of criticism that his opponents were able in many ways to frame the war in an unfavorable light in spite of being overall successful. The Republicans bungled 6 years of control with undisciplined spending. The economy tanked at the best possible time for Obama, creating the perfect mixture for anti-Republican sentiment. People are voting for Obama because he's a Democrat, because they hate Bush, because they blame the GOP for the economy, because he's black, because he inspires them with his smooth demeanor and eloquence.

But Obama will not win because of superior ideas. Any other time his proposals would have sunk his candidacy. Think about it: tax increases during a downturn in the economy? Spreading the wealth? $3 trillion in new spending? Think of Rev. Wright, Ayers, Father Pflager, Marching with Farrakhan on Washington, the bitter religious and gun folks speech, the gaffes by Biden and Michele. Some candidacies have died for less than half the controversies. Its a Democrat year.

McCain is an American hero. He's humble. He's a proven leader. He knows war. He is vastly more experienced and qualified. He would make a great president. If it had not been for the timing, I believe he would be ahead by double digits. At any rate, he may still pull off an improbable victory.

Yes, it was luck and a near billion dollar budget for his campaign. Obama bought his ticket to the white house.