Most Accurate Polls

[deacon blues]

This information came after the 2008 Election, a study done to determine which polling service was the most accurate when the voting was complete.

The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.

The Fordham analysis ranks 23 survey research organizations on their final, national pre-election polls, as reported on pollster.com.

On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obama’s strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points — 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obama’s final victory level, while four underestimated it. Only two — Rasmussen and Pew — were spot on.

Here is the list –

1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

6T. ARG (10/25-27)*

8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)

8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)

12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)

13. FOX (11/1-2)

14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)

15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)

17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)

18. Marist College (11/3)

19. CBS (10/31-11/2)

20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)

22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)

23. Newsweek (10/22-23)

NOTE: the vast majority of the polls OVERESTIMATED Obama's margin of victory. Only TWO out of TWENTY THREE were accurate "spot on": Rasmussen and Pew Center.

The latest Rasmussen poll has Romney ahead of Obama by 4 points 47-43. In OH Rasmussen has it a dead heat 45-45. Lately in the MSM and even here ppl have been touting a 9-11 point lead by Obama in the polls. Just remember that history and research bears out that most polls are skewed to favor Democrats. And remember that the last election the majority of the polls overestimated how far ahead Obama was of McCain in the final voting.

Most polls from now til November 6 are going to show a biased picture of Obama being stronger than he is. Either he will have a lead that is larger than what is the truth or if he's behind, the GOP lead will seem smaller than what it is.